Blaxland – Australia 2025

They will never win the libs will not preference them. They would do better to get some neutral candidates who aren’t as controversial. Then they might get libs on board

Did Ahmed Ouf make the 2CP in the end with distribution of preferences. I have looked at ABC Computer and AEC but they are showing a ALP/LIB flow.

@Nimalan looks like the Liberals made it into the 2PP/2CP count in the final distribution and Ouf’s preferences pushed Jason Clare’s margin beyond 20%, probably the best showing in the seat for a while.

So much for the MVM and Muslim independent push, all of it ended in a whimper.

@ Tommo9
Yes it seems that Gaza conflict has actually helped Labor TPP versus Libs . In Calwell there was actually a swing to Labor notionally versus Libs, Despite Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana preferencing Libs. What i think has happened is that the UAP support among Muslims collapsed and these voters went to MVM, Greens or Victorian Socialists and then preferenced Labor ahead of Libs. I think UAP did well among Muslims in 2022 due to lockdowns but now Muslims dont care about that. Unlike ONP, Palmer does not really have a bad repuation among Muslims.

I don’t think he did even though it was very close.

Now Albanese is about to recognise Palestine as a UN member so I wonder what will happen to in votes in Muslim heavy seats like Blaxland and Jewish heavy seats like Wentworth?

@ Marh
I really interested in the impact on State election in Victoria.
Bentleigh has a large Jewish community while Greenvale has a large Muslim they could swing in opposite direction.

Amongst seats such as Blaxland and Watson this if anything should improve the alp vote. I suspect Wentworth would
Improve slightly for the libs but not enough to balance the overall left tinge of the seat…Ms Spender will remain the mp for the foreseeable future… unless the seat were divided into 2 with the recreation of margin Phillip.

If this year’s election hadn’t happened yet it would’ve been interesting for Goldstein and Macnamara. I think Wentworth is relatively safe for Allegra Spender.

@ Votante
In Godstein i think the Jewish swing delivered the seat to Tim Wilson. Wentworth is safe for now for Allegra Spender until expansion of parliament which is why Liberals want to keep her there and prevent Labor from winning it. The current Kooyong has a Jewish community in its Southern parts and so does Bradfield arount St Ives. Kingsford Smith has a Jewish community but it too safe forLabor and the community is not big enough to have an impact

Initially back in 2022, I thought Muslim Australians were gradually become more Right-Wing voting such as more going to vote for the Liberal Party (or certain RW Parties like Libertarian Party or UAP) as Right-Wing Politics become less hostile to Muslim Immigrant in addition to the anti-lockdown/anti-vax movement but the Gaza War and Right-Wingers moving back to anti-immigration as covid is no longer an issue meant it cancelled all the right-wing inroads made.

Marh, I think the anti vax/lockdown movement during the Covid period only worked well with the Muslim ethnic minority voters because many of them worked in ‘critical’, public facing roles like those manufacturing and transportation sectors that provided limited opportunity for remote working. As a result, they felt that they were ‘scapegoated’ and not being taken care of compared to others.

This is different compared to those usual right-wing voters (many of which are ethnically white and not from CALD minority backgrounds), who are ‘libertarian’ minded and critical of government measures like vaccine and mask mandates.

@marh
I have heard some liberal members before October 7th who I know personally who wanted to reach out to Muslims to offset loss of affluent voters. I suspect Greenvale will swing back to Labor at a state level. geopolitically the Muslim world is hostile to the West so I don’t think Muslims can be brought under a unified Abrahamic identity. yoh an is correct Muslims often work as baggage handlers bus drivers etc so could not really work remotely

Today, another March for Australia took place. Increasingly, the atmosphere reminds me of the 2005–2006 period following the Cronulla riots. In that aftermath, there was a surge in nationalism, and Southern Cross tattoos became more popular. It seems the organizers are drawing inspiration from the “Raise the Colours” protests currently happening in the UK.

Blaxland is the most linguistically diverse electorate in the country, and until recently, it was considered a potential realignment seat for the Liberal Party to target in place of the Teal seats. At today’s March for Australia protest, one speaker called for a ban on the burqa and the deportation of Gaza refugees. I don’t believe society is moving toward a post-racial future. Steve Christou attended the protest once again.

Steve Christou appears to be like Mark Latham, with both being ex Labor members who defected and joined parties that support far right, culture war style rhetoric.

I guess both were historically seen as ‘larrikins’ and gained most support from white, working-class voters that are now seen as the base for conservative parties worldwide.

The problem is that Steve Christou just want social media presence with the Anglo Australian movement rather than even care for his own residents. This is why is super obsessed in starting culture wars against Indigenous Australia, transgender individuals and the Multicultural communities (funny that the latter makes overwhelming majority of the council population). He is literally is Stephen Chavura supporter as well (ironically Chavura’s small Christian conservative college is in Toongabbie, another CALD heavy area).

A few year ago, the Liberal Party (and far-right coojers albeit differently) were no longer hostile to Muslim and thought they would had gradually shifted right (like Southern and Eastern Europeans) but this is no longer the case and their inroads were undone.

@ Marh
I remember a comment you made in 2022 about Muslims and Africans possibly shifting right and racism shifting towards East Asians-see below. This was off course before October 7th. Even if Gaza is less in the news there would be another Charlie Hebdo/Danish Cartoons or another controversey (revival of Isis) which wil lead to the Right wing becoming hostile once again. With Southern and East Europeans i think they are more accepted by the Anglo Majority. People like Georgia Meloni, Victor Orban and the Law and Justice Party in Poland will all be admired by the right wing nationalists in the Anglosphere.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/glenwaverley2022#comment-774553

Exactly there will always be some controversy or war happening somewhere in the middle east. This could be Iran Gaza Iraq Afghanistan you name it.

Nimalan, many from Southern or Eastern European backgrounds were part of the ‘old’ wave of migration in the early to mid-20th Century. They may also have shared beliefs (Christian type religion) compared to the Anglo/white majority. As a result, they have now integrated into the wider Australian culture unlike those from non-European backgrounds (Asian, Middle East and African countries) who arrived in later years and also have different beliefs (non-Christian religions).

@ Yon An
I think you are 100% correct there are stronger cultural bonds between Anglo Australians and Southern/Eastern Europeans which is why they have now been embranced by thr right wing. There maybe some overlap in Values between the Christian Right and Muslims such as (opposition to LGBT, pornography and Hedonism in society). However, i think John is 100% correct they will always be some controversy. While Christians and Muslims are both Abrahamic Religions both religions are global and seek converts and are the 2 largest on earth so maybe a clash of cultures are inevetible. I think some may have seen this like the Protestant/Catholic divide which now non-existant.

@ Nimalan, I wonder if the Right-wing Nationalist also becomes anti-Eastern/Southern European and says even that “threatens” Anglo-Celtic Heritage, what would had happened? As I mentioned with Stephen Chavura in past post, he even placed post-war non-Anglo Europeans below Anglo-Australians alongside is part in the White Anglo Nationalist organisation “British Australian Community” which is ironic as he is half Slavic himself.

@ Marh
I personally doubt it for one reason. Eastern/Southern Europeans tend to be more socially conservative and religious than Western Europeans and when they assimilate and adopt Anglo Mannerisms such as accents, personality traits they increasingly become Anglo passing. In someways Eastern/Southern Europeans have retained what Anglos have lost namely Christianity. Areas that have high Eastern/Southern Europeans have some of the highest % of Christians in Australia.Also White Nationalists in the new World such as US, Canada and Australia are increasingly Pan-Europeanist in a way that Old world Nationalists are not. For example Croatian nationalists will be Anti-Serb, Ukranian Nationalists Anti-Russian, Hungarian nationalists Anti-Romanian or Northern Ireland Unionists wil be Anti Irish. In the new World i think Race plays a bigger role than Ethnicity.

@Nimalan, interesting take about New World White Nationalist although I think American White Nationalist is probably more likely to be pan-Europeanist compared to Australia has America did not had a strong Anglo identity to begin with and there was a large amount of Western European Conservatives (the largest amount from Germany which Trump himself was descendant of the wave) migrated to America as they resisted the Western European Reformist which these mixing gave birth to American strong Conservative and Nationalist Culture.

@ Marh
I think that is a very fair point. The US did not develop a strong Anglo Identity so i think you are correct US white Nationalists are more Pan-Europeanist than in Australia. In the US Anglo-Americans are a minority know and the only reason whites are still the a Majority is due to Other Europeans. Pan Europeanism is needed to shore up a majority which is why i think assimilated fair skinned hispanics will be invited to join the cultural majority otherwise US will be Minority-Majority by 2050.

While in Europe, Pan Europeanism is less associated with the right. i sometimes wonder if Christian Right feel a greater affinity to other Abrahmic religions over Non-Abrahmic so would someone in the Christian Right be more more Pro-Pakistan and Anti-India as Hindus are not strictly monothestic and not Abrahamic.

Ever since the Bondi Terrorist Attack, I have seen right-wing social media accounts politicalising the attack to spread Islamophobia and anti-multiculturalism. I wonder if the Liberals will begin to abandon Multiculturalism (albeit softly) given now much of the Australian Right is becoming anti-multicultural with some even saying they sympathise with the White Australia Policy.

There’s nothing wrong with multiculturalism there’s just some cultures that don’t want to integrate into society

@ Marh
How times have changed not too long ago many in the Liberal party thought Ethnic CALD areas in the Red Wall were the way forward based on the realignment theory. I think the outreach to Muslims which may have happened if October 7th never happened maybe difficult to sustain in any case as even if things calm down i am not sure if there will be another Charlie Hebdo/Danish cartoons ISIS may launch another attack in a European country etc.

Unfairly judged in many cases – that old mosaic or melting pot question – personally I like the idea of a tolerant mosaic. The intolerance I see is coming from those already here – be like us or else.

Marh
The issue is AntiSemitism, Albanese and the Labor Premiers signaling a Gun Laws frenzy won’t change that reality.
In fact, Hanson was at the Bondi memorial with a press pack, mumbled something about immigrants having to wait 10 years for Citizenship.
Bottom line, Hanson hasn’t got a clue, it looks like Barnaby is running the show now.

They should also change the Australian by birth rules that your parents need to be Australian citizens.

Darth, Australia already ended birthright citizenship in 1986 with the Australia Act – if born in Australia you are only considered a citizen if at least one of your parents is a citizen or permanent resident.

Why?

@Darth – no culture decides not to integrate en masse. Individuals make choices based on what is easy or comfortable for them. Given the rhetoric we have seen this week, not to mention the past twenty years, I’m not surprised many migrants find it uncomfortable putting themselves out there and easier (and safer) to stay within their own communities. Famously, the Jewish community is historically one of the best examples of that.

@Nimalan

History shows that theological proximity has a very complex relationship with religious tolerance. In many cases, “heathens” have been treated better than mere “heretics”. For example, until relatively recently, Catholics and Protestants have had more animosity towards each other than towards non-Christians. Conversely, polytheists in antiquity tolerated each other well even if their pantheons differed, but clashed with Jews, Christians, and Muslims. In any case, the reasons for tolerance and intolerance are very complex and cannot be fully explained by only looking at how similar two belief systems are.

I’ve been around some very conservative Christian circles in the past, and I witnessed more Islamophobia than antipathy towards other religious groups. I saw and heard things about Muslims that I will not repeat here, but I can tell you they broke my heart and made me angry. Among those with intolerant tendencies, it would seem they view Islam as threatening, but non-Abrahamic religions as merely strange.

Blast2095
The Immigration Policy is Multiculturaliism, not integration.
It has clearly failed, the promised benefits never materialised.
Suggestions by Hanson and Frydenburg that mihgrant vetting needs to be stricter are avoidingt the real issue and just kicking the caqn down the road.

@Nicholas
Great points. I’ve actually been asking Copilot about these questions recently — particularly how the old Catholic/Protestant divide in Western politics faded. One of the explanations it gave was the Cold War: the need for a unified Western front made those older sectarian divisions far less politically useful.

I also think the post–Second World War wave of decolonisation played a major role. As newly independent, non‑Western and largely non‑Christian nations (India, Indonesia, much of the Arab world, etc.) emerged onto the global stage, it pushed Western countries to see themselves as part of a shared “Western identity” in contrast.

I also asked about the term “Judeo‑Christian,” which is now common in right‑wing rhetoric — Hastie, Abbott and others have used it again in the wake of the Bondi attack. That term barely existed before WWII. A few reasons for its rise:

1. A moral reckoning with the Holocaust, and recognition that centuries of European antisemitism had helped enable it.

2. The dramatic reduction of Europe’s Jewish population meant Jews were no longer the primary minority within Europe. In places like Australia, Jewish migration actually increased after WWII, but in the “New World” race tended to matter more than religion.

3. The term helped promote a unified Western cultural narrative — and after 9/11 it became even more convenient as a way of drawing a civilisational boundary.

4. Using “Abrahamic” instead would imply a shared identity with Muslims as well, which would undermine the political purpose of the term by suggesting alignment with groups like the Taliban or the Iranian regime.

I also agree with your point that followers of non‑Abrahamic religions are often mocked more for their cultural background than their actual religious beliefs. I’ve personally never had religious slurs thrown at me, but I’ve definitely had people do the Apu voice at me and similar things.

@Nimalan

I think another reason for Catholics and Protestants generally seeing eye-to-eye nowadays is the rise in irreligion. The differences between the worldviews of conservative Catholic and a conservative Protestant seem small compared with the differences between that of either and that of an atheist.

As for “Judeo-Christian” versus “Abrahamic”, I’ll say this:

Christianity did not begin as a new religion, but was a movement within Judaism, and thus inherited much of it. Mostly notable is of course the Old Testament. Throughout history, there has been much variation in how Christians have felt about the connection of their religion to Judaism. Supersessionism – the view that Christians have replaced Jews as “God’s chosen people” and the covenant between God and the Jews is null and void – was once very commonplace. Christians now tend to have a more nuanced take on this, and supersessionism in its hardest forms are condemned as antisemitic. Indeed, the other end of the spectrum – Christian Zionism – is much more common. Nowadays, conservative Christians view the Old Testament fondly, see it as a revealing of God’s character, and identify with the people (themselves Jews) depicted in it. I think this in part can be attributed to the rise of literalism in the interpretation of the Bible.

So yes, I think it makes sense that we hear “Judeo-Christian” and not “Abrahamic”. Christians generally have come to terms with their connection with Judaism. They have not managed the same in relation to Islam.

@Nicholas I agree that the rise of irreligion and the social changes that emerged in the 1960s helped close the sectarian divide within Christianity — for example, shifting attitudes around divorce, feminism, LGBT rights, and so on.

I also agree with you that Christianity didn’t begin as a completely new religion, and that its formal separation only really crystallised around 300 AD with the Council of Nicaea. One factor that contributed to antisemitism was that Christianity found far fewer converts among Jews than among pagans. The older pagan religions of Europe eventually disappeared, but Jewish communities maintained their faith despite centuries of persecution.

I accept that Islam did begin as a new religion, but it explicitly incorporates many Christian beliefs — the Virgin Birth, the miracles of Jesus, and the idea that Jesus was the promised messiah. It also accepts figures like Adam and Eve. That’s why I said that, in theory, an “Abrahamic identity” could emerge, although like you, I’m sceptical.

In my response to @Marh, I mentioned that something like this may be necessary for Muslims to be part of the broader political realignment, and for the Libs to be competitive in seats like Blaxland and Calwell. Otherwise, any relationship may end up being purely transactional and could fall apart quickly when circumstances shift.

One point of longstanding resentment between Christians and Muslims is that the Qur’an quite explicitly rejects Trinitarianism and the divinity of Jesus.

Funnily enough, I, as someone with a Christian background, have recently started reading the Qur’an, because I do see Islam in the terms you describe – adjacent to Christianity – and thus worthwhile for me to read. But I would say that I am an anomaly.

I think it is possible for a political party to appeal to both conservative Christians and conservative Muslims. But it will be hard to do so for as long as the Middle East conflict is a key issue, and such common appeal will arise incidentally, not because of a shared Abrahamic identity.

@ Nicholas
I agree i think stability of the Middle East especially the treatment of Ancient Christian communitiies such as Assyrians, Copts etc probably will determine if social relations improve even if there remain theological differences. As the Middle East is the Cradle of Christianity stability there will determine Christian-Muslim relations. I think as things stand currently there may cooperate together on Religious Discrimination Legislation and Educational curriculumn matters but this will not develop into a shared identity

As bad as this event was it will undoubtedly hurt the govt in the polls. Although this is not the way it should happen people are gonna blame the govt here. I still don’t think Susan Ley is the one to lead the Liberal Party.

Two cars were reportedly stopped in Liverpool that came from Melbourne with 7 men being detained. The Australian and nsw police intercepted the vehicles. They were reportedly travelling to Bondi Pavilion. And some sort of violent incident was suspected.